US sports
Polymarket NBA / NFL / NHL / MLB moneylines against ESPN's DraftKings line (one soft sportsbook, so a weak reference). Paper only.
E1 promotion gate (paper only)
FAIL
1 pass · 5 fail · 0 insufficient data
promotion gates: 1 pass / 5 fail / 0 insufficient data
Simulated paper bankroll P&L (start $10000.00)
-$366.89
- Settled bets (n)
- 72
- Open
- 0
- Weeks logged
- 3/4
- ROI on stake
- -2.7% (no interval)
- Equity at cost
- $9633.11
- Book halted
- yes
WARNING: The promotion gate FAILS: this P&L is not evidence of an edge. Only 3 weeks logged (4 needed): no confidence interval and no verdict.
Paper only: no wallet, key or order code exists. Gate status leads because a profit figure means nothing until the gates pass and at least 4 ISO weeks are logged.
Pipeline
snapshot: ok · 11m ago discover: ok · 50m ago refodds: ok · 15m ago resolve: ok · 20m ago
- Upcoming games by league
- nba 76 · nfl 15 · nhl 67
- Reference last fetched
- 15m ago
- Last order-book snapshot
- 23m ago
Coverage and reference (report for 2026-11-11, uploaded 8h ago)
- Coverage bar (≥90% to finish SP1)
- 108/230 · 47% (snapshots alone 111)
- Games matched to a reference / in review
- 322 / 154
- T-60 decision points with a usable reference
- 97%
- Reference table
- 26273 readings · 332 games · latest 7d ago
- Snapshots excluded (kickoff moved earlier)
- 0
Model vs market
| Probability | Log loss | Brier | Calib. slope | Calib. intercept |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pF (fundamental) | 0.6648 | 0.2361 | 0.988 | 0.023 |
| pM (market) | 0.6433 | 0.2263 | 1.211 | -0.031 |
| pH (hybrid) | 0.6537 | 0.2307 | 0.800 | 0.005 |
| Comparison | n | Delta LL | 95% interval | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pH vs market | 3365 | -0.0104 | [-0.0192, -0.0017] | model better than market |
| pF vs market | 3365 | -0.0215 | [-0.0327, -0.0106] | model better than market |
| anchor (bF=bM=1) vs market, never traded | 3365 | -0.0158 | [-0.0298, -0.0017] | model better than market |
| pH vs market (ISO-week blocks) | 3365 | -0.0104 | [-0.0216, -0.0026] | model better than market |
| Horizon | n | bF | bM | bF 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T-24h | 842 | -0.092 | 1.284 | [-0.63, 0.43] |
| T-6h | 845 | -0.256 | 1.372 | [-0.83, 0.27] |
| T-1h | 845 | -0.227 | 1.364 | [-0.78, 0.30] |
| T-15m | 833 | -0.199 | 1.332 | [-0.69, 0.30] |
Martingale test p = 0.0000 (n=2522). A small p means the hybrid forecast's revisions are predictable, which fails the test.
Promotion gates
| Gate | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| G1 No failed admissibility or reproducibility audits | PASS | 4 audits clean |
| G2 Calibration slope in [0.9, 1.1] and intercept within +/-0.05 per league | FAIL | outside the band: ['mlb', 'nba', 'nfl', 'nhl'] |
| G3 Hybrid beats the market on out-of-sample log loss (weekly block bootstrap 95% interval excludes 0) | FAIL | interval includes or lies below zero: no demonstrated edge over the market |
| G4 Log-loss advantage exceeds log C plus average fees (Proposition 11) | FAIL | delta-LL -0.0104 vs log C + fees 0.0328 |
| G5 Martingale test does not reject for the hybrid at the 1% level (Theorem 1) | FAIL | p = 0.0000 |
| G6 Executable replay positive net return with t > 2, then 4 weeks of consistent shadow trading | FAIL | replay t = -0.12 (needs > 2) |
E1 paper ledger (simulated)
E1 paper engine: simulated orders sized from a 10,000 USD simulated bankroll, filled from stored order-book snapshots (taker only), not live fills. The curve counts settled bets only and is plotted at kickoff time. A profit here is not evidence of an edge while the promotion gate is not PASS. The table shows the most recent bets; totals cover all of them.
■ E1
E1: -$366.89 · 72 settled · 0 open
| Rule | Game | Side | Bucket | Kickoff | Stake | Cost | Edge | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Flames vs. Avalanche | Colorado Avalanche | T-24h | 11-01 02:00Z | $194.45 | 0.789 | 0.111 | won | +$52.13 |
| E1 | Blue Jackets vs. Stars | Dallas Stars | T-24h | 11-01 00:00Z | $198.42 | 0.642 | 0.086 | won | +$110.81 |
| E1 | Kings vs. Grizzlies | Memphis Grizzlies | T-24h | 11-01 00:00Z | $198.42 | 0.760 | 0.069 | won | +$62.66 |
| E1 | Blackhawks vs. Bruins | Boston Bruins | T-24h | 10-31 17:00Z | $198.42 | 0.691 | 0.114 | won | +$88.78 |
| E1 | Rockets vs. Mavericks | Houston Rockets | T-1h | 10-31 00:00Z | $198.42 | 0.650 | 0.084 | lost | -$198.42 |
| E1 | Bulls vs. Celtics | Boston Celtics | T-24h | 10-30 23:30Z | $198.16 | 0.875 | 0.059 | won | +$28.42 |
| E1 | Pistons vs. Nets | Detroit Pistons | T-24h | 10-30 23:30Z | $198.16 | 0.728 | 0.096 | won | +$73.94 |
| E1 | Magic vs. Raptors | Toronto Raptors | T-24h | 10-30 23:30Z | $198.16 | 0.660 | 0.099 | lost | -$198.16 |
| E1 | Jets vs. Panthers | Florida Panthers | T-6h | 10-30 23:00Z | $198.42 | 0.691 | 0.087 | won | +$88.78 |
| E1 | Hornets vs. Wizards | Charlotte Hornets | T-6h | 10-30 23:00Z | $198.42 | 0.520 | 0.088 | lost | -$198.42 |
| E1 | Devils vs. Golden Knights | Vegas Golden Knights | T-24h | 10-30 22:00Z | $198.16 | 0.532 | 0.113 | lost | -$198.16 |
| E1 | Canucks vs. Sharks | San Jose Sharks | T-24h | 10-30 02:00Z | $203.70 | 0.642 | 0.080 | won | +$113.76 |
| E1 | Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers | Portland Trail Blazers | T-1h | 10-30 02:00Z | $198.16 | 0.720 | 0.073 | lost | -$198.16 |
| E1 | Islanders vs. Wild | Minnesota Wild | T-24h | 10-30 00:00Z | $203.70 | 0.661 | 0.092 | lost | -$203.70 |
| E1 | Blackhawks vs. Red Wings | Detroit Red Wings | T-6h | 10-29 23:30Z | $198.16 | 0.602 | 0.112 | won | +$130.96 |
| E1 | Jets vs. Lightning | Tampa Bay Lightning | T-6h | 10-29 23:00Z | $198.16 | 0.681 | 0.109 | won | +$92.80 |
| E1 | Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes | Carolina Hurricanes | T-6h | 10-29 23:00Z | $198.16 | 0.720 | 0.102 | won | +$76.95 |
| E1 | Thunder vs. Mavericks | Oklahoma City Thunder | T-24h | 10-29 01:30Z | $210.77 | 0.680 | 0.099 | lost | -$210.77 |
| E1 | Devils vs. Avalanche | Colorado Avalanche | T-24h | 10-29 01:00Z | $210.77 | 0.639 | 0.114 | won | +$118.98 |
| E1 | Spurs vs. Jazz | San Antonio Spurs | T-24h | 10-29 01:00Z | $210.77 | 0.840 | 0.052 | won | +$40.15 |
| E1 | Flames vs. Oilers | Edmonton Oilers | T-24h | 10-29 00:30Z | $210.77 | 0.673 | 0.120 | won | +$102.37 |
| E1 | Knicks vs. Bulls | New York Knicks | T-24h | 10-29 00:00Z | $210.77 | 0.691 | 0.118 | won | +$94.14 |
| E1 | Warriors vs. Timberwolves | Minnesota Timberwolves | T-24h | 10-29 00:00Z | $210.77 | 0.605 | 0.124 | lost | -$210.77 |
| E1 | Heat vs. Hawks | Atlanta Hawks | T-24h | 10-28 23:00Z | $210.77 | 0.580 | 0.118 | lost | -$210.77 |
| E1 | Canucks vs. Ducks | Anaheim Ducks | T-24h | 10-28 02:00Z | $214.99 | 0.671 | 0.115 | lost | -$214.99 |
| E1 | Devils vs. Stars | Dallas Stars | T-24h | 10-28 00:00Z | $214.99 | 0.562 | 0.083 | lost | -$214.99 |
| E1 | Kings vs. Spurs | San Antonio Spurs | T-24h | 10-28 00:00Z | $214.99 | 0.880 | 0.071 | won | +$29.32 |
| E1 | Nets vs. Celtics | Boston Celtics | T-24h | 10-27 23:30Z | $214.99 | 0.820 | 0.075 | won | +$47.19 |
| E1 | Warriors vs. Nuggets | Denver Nuggets | T-1h | 10-27 02:00Z | $214.99 | 0.720 | 0.074 | lost | -$214.99 |
| E1 | Red Wings vs. Oilers | Edmonton Oilers | T-24h | 10-27 01:30Z | $223.69 | 0.632 | 0.097 | lost | -$223.69 |
| E1 | Suns vs. Thunder | Oklahoma City Thunder | T-24h | 10-27 00:00Z | $219.75 | 0.850 | 0.053 | won | +$38.78 |
| E1 | Bulls vs. Celtics | Boston Celtics | T-24h | 10-26 23:30Z | $219.75 | 0.860 | 0.056 | won | +$35.77 |
| E1 | Wizards vs. Hornets | Charlotte Hornets | T-24h | 10-26 23:00Z | $219.75 | 0.590 | 0.132 | won | +$152.71 |
| E1 | Avalanche vs. Predators | Colorado Avalanche | T-6h | 10-26 00:00Z | $217.32 | 0.701 | 0.092 | lost | -$217.32 |
| E1 | Magic vs. Knicks | New York Knicks | T-24h | 10-25 23:00Z | $208.71 | 0.759 | 0.072 | lost | -$208.71 |
| E1 | Magic vs. Knicks | New York Knicks | T-1h | 10-25 23:00Z | $8.61 | 0.700 | 0.100 | lost | -$8.61 |
| E1 | Lakers vs. Jazz | Los Angeles Lakers | T-1h | 10-25 21:00Z | $217.32 | 0.690 | 0.096 | won | +$97.64 |
| E1 | Broncos vs. Cardinals | Denver Broncos | T-15m | 10-25 20:05Z | $217.32 | 0.687 | 0.097 | won | +$99.23 |
| E1 | Panthers vs. Blackhawks | Florida Panthers | T-1h | 10-25 19:00Z | $217.32 | 0.642 | 0.057 | won | +$121.37 |
| E1 | Warriors vs. Suns | Phoenix Suns | T-24h | 10-25 02:00Z | $201.97 | 0.640 | 0.077 | won | +$113.61 |
| E1 | Spurs vs. Mavericks | San Antonio Spurs | T-24h | 10-25 00:00Z | $201.97 | 0.780 | 0.072 | won | +$56.96 |
| E1 | Bucks vs. 76ers | Philadelphia 76ers | T-1h | 10-24 23:30Z | $208.71 | 0.850 | 0.054 | won | +$36.83 |
| E1 | Heat vs. Hornets | Charlotte Hornets | T-24h | 10-24 22:00Z | $201.97 | 0.487 | 0.124 | won | +$212.40 |
| E1 | Heat vs. Hornets | Charlotte Hornets | T-15m | 10-24 22:00Z | $6.75 | 0.390 | 0.093 | won | +$10.56 |
| E1 | Trail Blazers vs. Kings | Portland Trail Blazers | T-24h | 10-24 02:00Z | $201.97 | 0.730 | 0.101 | won | +$74.70 |
| E1 | Pistons vs. Heat | Detroit Pistons | T-6h | 10-24 00:00Z | $201.97 | 0.540 | 0.095 | won | +$172.04 |
| E1 | Raptors vs. Wizards | Toronto Raptors | T-24h | 10-23 23:00Z | $201.97 | 0.690 | 0.118 | won | +$90.74 |
| E1 | Kings vs. Clippers | LA Clippers | T-24h | 10-22 02:30Z | $201.18 | 0.640 | 0.110 | won | +$113.16 |
| E1 | Hornets vs. Nets | Charlotte Hornets | T-24h | 10-21 23:30Z | $201.18 | 0.430 | 0.202 | won | +$266.61 |
| E1 | Hurricanes vs. Canucks | Carolina Hurricanes | T-24h | 10-21 02:00Z | $204.31 | 0.750 | 0.062 | won | +$68.24 |
| E1 | Sharks vs. Canadiens | Montreal Canadiens | T-24h | 10-20 23:00Z | $204.31 | 0.671 | 0.068 | lost | -$204.31 |
| E1 | 76ers vs. Knicks | New York Knicks | T-24h | 10-20 23:00Z | $204.31 | 0.632 | 0.127 | lost | -$204.31 |
| E1 | Commanders vs. 49ers | San Francisco 49ers | T-24h | 10-20 00:15Z | $205.14 | 0.795 | 0.093 | won | +$52.90 |
| E1 | Avalanche vs. Flyers | Colorado Avalanche | T-24h | 10-19 23:00Z | $209.38 | 0.689 | 0.069 | lost | -$209.38 |
| E1 | Hurricanes vs. Flames | Carolina Hurricanes | T-24h | 10-19 00:00Z | $210.01 | 0.681 | 0.059 | lost | -$210.01 |
| E1 | Blue Jackets vs. Wild | Minnesota Wild | T-24h | 10-18 22:00Z | $206.49 | 0.642 | 0.073 | won | +$115.32 |
| E1 | Chargers vs. Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs | T-24h | 10-18 20:25Z | $206.49 | 0.795 | 0.073 | won | +$53.25 |
| E1 | Cardinals vs. Rams | Los Angeles Rams | T-24h | 10-18 20:05Z | $206.49 | 0.883 | 0.056 | lost | -$206.49 |
| E1 | Cardinals vs. Rams | Los Angeles Rams | T-1h | 10-18 20:05Z | $5.72 | 0.873 | 0.079 | lost | -$5.72 |
| E1 | Titans vs. Colts | Indianapolis Colts | T-24h | 10-18 17:00Z | $206.49 | 0.756 | 0.092 | lost | -$206.49 |
Retired rules (history)
R1–R4 were retired as the live decision engine. Their frozen rules, results and curves are kept unchanged for the record. This is not the current system's performance.
| Rule | Bets | Weeks | Excluded | Win rate | ROI | 95% interval | p (BH) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.000 | retired |
| R2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100.0% | 301.4% | 301.4% … 301.4% | 0.001 | retired |
| R3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.000 | retired |
| R4 (control) | 312 | 4 | 0 | 63.5% | -0.8% | -9.7% … 3.9% | — | retired |
No verdict is issued from fewer than 4 ISO weeks; "insufficient" is the expected status for a long time.
Simulated by the frozen rules, evaluated nightly: hypothetical 50 USD bets, not live fills. The curve counts settled bets only and is plotted at kickoff time. A pick for a game whose decision window is still open can change between nightly runs; picks are final once the window has closed. The table shows the most recent bets; totals cover all of them.
■ R1■ R2■ R3■ R4 (control)
R1: +$0.00 · 0 settled · 0 openR2: +$156.43 · 1 settled · 0 openR3: +$0.00 · 0 settled · 0 openR4 (control): -$127.16 · 312 settled · 0 open
| Rule | Game | Side | Kickoff | Stake | Cost | Edge | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No simulated bets yet. | ||||||||
Audits
- PASS admissibility
- PASS candidates
- PASS no_peek
- PASS selection_blind
- PASS matching
- PASS results