One engine · three arenas
Forecasts that
fight the baseline.
Probabilistic forecasting for world events, sport, and weather — every prediction issued behind a strict publication-time wall, scored against the baseline it has to beat. Wounds published next to wins.
World Events
+12.7% Brier skillGeopolitical risk vs the expanding base rate — 2,409 forecasts issued strictly behind the wall.
Forecast a risk →Sporting Events
beats Elo 16/16Live prediction markets, de-vigged, with the engine model as a measured-skill cross-check.
World Cup Winner →Weather
20 cities · any place7-day rain, freeze & heat vs the NWP reference. Skill decays with lead time, honestly.
Open forecast →Latest Signals
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5
news_sentiment0
news_intensity0.5