Soccer

Polymarket soccer 1X2 markets (28 leagues) against Betfair Exchange / bookmaker-average odds from football-data.co.uk. Paper only.

E1 promotion gate (paper only)

FAIL

2 pass · 5 fail · 1 insufficient data

Simulated paper bankroll P&L (start $10000.00)

+$2449.67

Settled bets (n): 330 over 136 events
Open: 0
Weeks logged: 2/4
ROI on stake: 5.0% (no interval)
Equity at cost: $12449.67
Book halted: drawdown 17.3% >= 15%

WARNING: The promotion gate FAILS: this P&L is not evidence of an edge. Only 2 weeks logged (4 needed): no confidence interval and no verdict.

Paper only: no wallet, key or order code exists. Gate status leads because a profit figure means nothing until the gates pass and at least 4 ISO weeks are logged.

Soccer

● Attention

report data is 202 h old (sync may be failing)
E1 paper book halted: drawdown 17.3% >= 15%

E1 promotion gate

FAIL

2 pass · 5 fail · 1 insufficient

E1 paper P&L (simulated) — gates FAIL

+$2449.67

n=330 settled · 0 open · 2/4 weeks · The promotion gate FAILS: this P&L is not evidence of an edge. Only 2 weeks logged (4 needed): no confidence interval and no verdict.

Games in next 24 h: 0
Last order-book snapshot: 12m ago
Snapshots stored: 545676
Coverage (14 d): 288/546 · 53%
Matched / in review: 532 / 674
pH vs market (fused rows) (ΔLL): +0.0075 [0.000, 0.015]

Paper shadow days (gate 6b needs 28)20/28

updated 10m ago

Pipeline

snapshot: ok · 10m ago discover: ok · 50m ago refodds: ok · 35m ago resolve: ok · 20m ago

Upcoming games by league: brazil-serie-a 11 · bundesliga-2 5 · bundesliga-2025 6 · efl-championship 11 · ere-2025 1 · japan-j-league 10 · la-liga-2 15 · la-liga-2025 3 · ligue-1-2025 2 · ligue-2 7 · mex-2025 4 · mls-2025 2 · premier-league-2025 6 · scottish-premiership 4 · serie-a-2025 3 · serie-b 7 · soccer-el1 24 · soccer-el2 24 · soccer-enl 24 · tur-2025 4
Reference last fetched: 36m ago
Last order-book snapshot: 12m ago

Coverage and reference (report for 2026-11-11, uploaded 10h ago)

Coverage bar (≥90% to finish SP1): 288/546 · 53%
Games matched to a reference / in review: 532 / 674
T-60 decision points with a usable reference: —

Model vs market

All scored rows · n=9258. Lower log loss and Brier are better; a calibration slope near 1 and intercept near 0 are better.
Probability	Log loss	Brier	Calib. slope	Calib. intercept
pF (fundamental)	0.5826	0.1982	1.188	0.122
pM (market)	0.5679	0.1920	1.197	0.127

Rows with fused pH · n=8433. Lower log loss and Brier are better; a calibration slope near 1 and intercept near 0 are better.
Probability	Log loss	Brier	Calib. slope	Calib. intercept
pF (fundamental)	0.5795	0.1968	1.222	0.144
pM (market)	0.5663	0.1913	1.205	0.132
pH (hybrid)	0.5738	0.1933	0.885	-0.073

Delta log loss = model minus market. Negative means the model beat the market. 95% block-bootstrap interval.
Comparison	n	Delta LL	95% interval	Reading
pH vs market (fused rows)	8433	+0.0075	[+0.0001, +0.0150]	model worse than market
pF vs market (all scored rows)	9258	+0.0147	[+0.0077, +0.0222]	model worse than market
pF vs market (fused rows)	8433	+0.0131	[+0.0056, +0.0207]	model worse than market
pH vs market (ISO-week blocks)	8433	+0.0075	[+0.0001, +0.0135]	model worse than market

Fusion weights bF (fundamental) and bM (market) by horizon. Fitted fusion weights. bF and bM both near 1.0 means the fit sat on its ridge anchor, not a learned edge.
Horizon	n	bF	bM	bF 95% interval
T-24h	1845	0.166	1.153	—
T-6h	2418	-0.051	1.200	—
T-1h	2454	-0.105	1.238	—
T-15m	2451	-0.052	1.194	—

Martingale test p = 0.0000 (n=6138). A small p means the hybrid forecast's revisions are predictable, which fails the test.

Promotion gates

Gate	Status	Reason
3.1 Contract compiler matches every resolved market	PASS	2463 resolved markets checked, 0 mismatches; 366 not verifiable
1 No failed admissibility or reproducibility audit	PASS	admissibility audits clean; 32 replayed decisions bit-identical
2 Calibration per league (hybrid p_H)	FAIL	22 league(s) outside slope [0.9, 1.1] / \|intercept\| <= 0.05: bel1-games, brazil-serie-a, bundesliga-2, bundesliga-2025, efl-championship, ere-2025, gre1-games, japan-j-league
3 Hybrid beats market on out-of-sample log loss	FAIL	dLL +0.0075 [+0.0001, +0.0135]: the hybrid does not beat the market
4 Margin exceeds log C plus fees (Proposition 11)	FAIL	log-score margin -0.0146 (lower bound -0.0284) does not exceed log C + fees = 0.0464
5 Martingale test for the hybrid (Theorem 1)	FAIL	rejected at the 1% level (p = 0.0000, n = 6138)
6a Executable replay: positive net return with t > 2	FAIL	ROI +0.050, t = 0.90 (needs > 0 and t > 2)
6b 4 weeks of shadow trading	INSUFFICIENT DATA	21 days of paper decisions so far; need 28

E1 paper ledger (simulated)

E1 paper engine: simulated orders sized from a 10,000 USD simulated bankroll, filled from stored order-book snapshots (taker only), not live fills. The curve counts settled bets only and is plotted at kickoff time. A profit here is not evidence of an edge while the promotion gate is not PASS. The table shows the most recent bets; totals cover all of them.

■ E1

E1: +$2449.67 · 330 settled · 0 open

Rule	Game	Side	Bucket	Kickoff	Stake	Cost	Edge	Status	P&L
E1	Club Santos Laguna v Pumas de la UNAM	home NO	T-24h	10-22 03:10Z	$292.14	0.596	0.107	lost	-$292.14
E1	Club Santos Laguna v Pumas de la UNAM	away YES	T-24h	10-22 03:10Z	$278.00	0.331	0.094	lost	-$278.00
E1	Deportivo Toluca FC v Club Tijuana	home YES	T-24h	10-22 01:00Z	$288.71	0.720	0.058	lost	-$288.71
E1	Deportivo Toluca FC v Club Tijuana	away NO	T-24h	10-22 01:00Z	$288.71	0.883	0.050	won	+$38.39
E1	Club Puebla v CF Monterrey	home NO	T-24h	10-22 01:00Z	$247.50	0.788	0.087	won	+$66.63
E1	Club Puebla v CF Monterrey	away YES	T-24h	10-22 01:00Z	$247.50	0.532	0.078	won	+$217.31
E1	Atlas FC v CF América	home NO	T-24h	10-22 01:00Z	$288.71	0.742	0.110	won	+$100.52
E1	Atlas FC v CF América	away YES	T-24h	10-22 01:00Z	$288.71	0.491	0.101	won	+$299.71
E1	FC Cincinnati v D.C. United SC	home YES	T-24h	10-21 23:00Z	$288.71	0.572	0.061	won	+$215.74
E1	Levante UD v Athletic Club	home NO	T-24h	10-21 18:00Z	$309.31	0.750	0.072	lost	-$309.31
E1	Levante UD v Athletic Club	away YES	T-24h	10-21 18:00Z	$309.31	0.460	0.076	lost	-$309.31
E1	Urawa Red Diamonds v JEF United Ichihara Chiba	home YES	T-6h	10-21 10:30Z	$60.86	0.602	0.086	won	+$40.22
E1	Urawa Red Diamonds v JEF United Ichihara Chiba	away NO	T-6h	10-21 10:30Z	$60.86	0.837	0.058	won	+$11.85
E1	Kyōto Sanga FC v Kashima Antlers	home NO	T-24h	10-21 10:00Z	$309.31	0.776	0.058	won	+$89.05
E1	Kyōto Sanga FC v Kashima Antlers	away YES	T-24h	10-21 10:00Z	$291.18	0.517	0.077	lost	-$291.18
E1	Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kōbe	home NO	T-6h	10-21 10:00Z	$119.86	0.612	0.051	lost	-$119.86
E1	Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kōbe	away YES	T-6h	10-21 10:00Z	$292.14	0.361	0.072	lost	-$292.14
E1	V-Varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima	home NO	T-6h	10-21 10:00Z	$292.14	0.883	0.078	lost	-$292.14
E1	V-Varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima	away YES	T-6h	10-21 10:00Z	$292.14	0.696	0.107	lost	-$292.14
E1	Yokohama F·Marinos v Tōkyō Verdy	home YES	T-24h	10-21 10:00Z	$309.31	0.535	0.107	lost	-$309.31
E1	Yokohama F·Marinos v Tōkyō Verdy	away NO	T-24h	10-21 10:00Z	$309.31	0.811	0.092	won	+$72.18
E1	Shimizu S-Pulse v FC Machida Zelvia	home NO	T-6h	10-21 10:00Z	$292.14	0.769	0.109	won	+$87.80
E1	Shimizu S-Pulse v FC Machida Zelvia	away YES	T-6h	10-21 10:00Z	$292.14	0.497	0.125	won	+$296.18
E1	Tigres de la UANL v Club León FC	home YES	T-6h	10-21 03:00Z	$309.31	0.482	0.112	lost	-$309.31
E1	Tigres de la UANL v Club León FC	away NO	T-6h	10-21 03:00Z	$309.31	0.750	0.107	lost	-$309.31
E1	CD Guadalajara v Club Necaxa	home YES	T-24h	10-21 00:07Z	$295.05	0.701	0.097	won	+$126.03
E1	CD Guadalajara v Club Necaxa	away NO	T-24h	10-21 00:07Z	$295.05	0.885	0.063	won	+$38.23
E1	CD Guadalajara v Club Necaxa	home YES	T-6h	10-21 00:07Z	$14.26	0.720	0.078	won	+$5.54
E1	CD Guadalajara v Club Necaxa	away NO	T-6h	10-21 00:07Z	$14.26	0.885	0.060	won	+$1.85
E1	Notts County FC v Sheffield Wednesday FC	home NO	T-24h	10-20 18:45Z	$299.27	0.736	0.139	lost	-$299.27
E1	Notts County FC v Sheffield Wednesday FC	away YES	T-24h	10-20 18:45Z	$299.27	0.471	0.148	lost	-$299.27
E1	Doncaster Rovers FC v Stockport County FC	home NO	T-24h	10-20 18:45Z	$299.27	0.767	0.102	won	+$90.68
E1	Doncaster Rovers FC v Stockport County FC	away YES	T-24h	10-20 18:45Z	$299.27	0.535	0.101	won	+$260.62
E1	Doncaster Rovers FC v Stockport County FC	home NO	T-6h	10-20 18:45Z	$10.04	0.802	0.095	won	+$2.48
E1	Doncaster Rovers FC v Stockport County FC	away YES	T-6h	10-20 18:45Z	$10.04	0.572	0.097	won	+$7.50
E1	Oxford United FC v Wigan Athletic FC	home YES	T-24h	10-20 18:45Z	$299.27	0.506	0.091	won	+$291.96
E1	Oxford United FC v Wigan Athletic FC	away NO	T-24h	10-20 18:45Z	$299.27	0.780	0.079	won	+$84.54
E1	Huddersfield Town AFC v Peterborough United FC	home YES	T-24h	10-20 18:45Z	$299.27	0.652	0.054	won	+$159.70
E1	Huddersfield Town AFC v Peterborough United FC	home YES	T-6h	10-20 18:45Z	$10.04	0.661	0.056	won	+$5.14
E1	Stevenage FC v Plymouth Argyle FC	home NO	T-24h	10-20 18:45Z	$299.27	0.666	0.062	lost	-$299.27
E1	Stevenage FC v Plymouth Argyle FC	home NO	T-6h	10-20 18:45Z	$10.04	0.671	0.065	lost	-$10.04
E1	Burton Albion FC v Bradford City AFC	home NO	T-6h	10-20 18:45Z	$41.03	0.818	0.071	won	+$9.15
E1	AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield Town FC	home NO	T-24h	10-20 18:45Z	$299.27	0.739	0.096	won	+$105.71
E1	AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield Town FC	away YES	T-24h	10-20 18:45Z	$299.27	0.479	0.090	won	+$325.57
E1	AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield Town FC	home NO	T-6h	10-20 18:45Z	$10.04	0.748	0.092	won	+$3.38
E1	AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield Town FC	away YES	T-6h	10-20 18:45Z	$9.15	0.477	0.090	won	+$10.04
E1	Northampton Town FC v Tranmere Rovers FC	away NO	T-24h	10-20 18:45Z	$217.21	0.736	0.064	lost	-$217.21
E1	Northampton Town FC v Tranmere Rovers FC	away NO	T-6h	10-20 18:45Z	$92.10	0.730	0.068	lost	-$92.10
E1	Barnet FC v Swindon Town FC	home YES	T-6h	10-20 18:45Z	$309.31	0.681	0.059	lost	-$309.31
E1	Barnet FC v Swindon Town FC	away NO	T-1h	10-20 18:45Z	$309.31	0.871	0.041	lost	-$309.31
E1	Exeter City FC v Crewe Alexandra FC	draw YES	T-24h	10-20 18:45Z	$191.38	0.331	0.060	lost	-$191.38
E1	Exeter City FC v Crewe Alexandra FC	draw YES	T-6h	10-20 18:45Z	$50.12	0.320	0.061	lost	-$50.12
E1	Exeter City FC v Crewe Alexandra FC	draw YES	T-1h	10-20 18:45Z	$38.49	0.321	0.069	lost	-$38.49
E1	Exeter City FC v Crewe Alexandra FC	draw YES	T-15m	10-20 18:45Z	$29.31	0.331	0.070	lost	-$29.31
E1	York City FC v Accrington Stanley FC	home YES	T-24h	10-20 18:45Z	$299.27	0.592	0.083	lost	-$299.27
E1	York City FC v Accrington Stanley FC	away NO	T-24h	10-20 18:45Z	$257.14	0.821	0.066	won	+$56.17
E1	York City FC v Accrington Stanley FC	home YES	T-6h	10-20 18:45Z	$10.04	0.582	0.088	lost	-$10.04
E1	York City FC v Accrington Stanley FC	away NO	T-6h	10-20 18:45Z	$52.17	0.818	0.070	won	+$11.63
E1	CD Riestra v CA Unión	draw YES	T-24h	10-20 00:15Z	$221.48	0.351	0.062	won	+$409.12
E1	CD Riestra v CA Unión	draw YES	T-6h	10-20 00:15Z	$77.79	0.341	0.064	won	+$150.30

Retired rules (history)

R1–R4 were retired as the live decision engine. Their frozen rules, results and curves are kept unchanged for the record. This is not the current system's performance.

Rule	Bets	Weeks	Excluded	Win rate	ROI	95% interval	p (BH)	Status
R1	59	4	1	39.0%	-17.1%	-43.6% … -1.5%	0.981	retired
R2	91	4	0	40.7%	-12.3%	-26.7% … 4.6%	0.981	retired
R3	49	4	1	42.9%	-12.8%	-27.3% … 1.0%	0.981	retired
R4 (control)	942	4	7	56.6%	5.9%	-5.5% … 14.3%	—	retired

No verdict is issued from fewer than 4 ISO weeks; "insufficient" is the expected status for a long time.

Simulated by the frozen rules, evaluated nightly: hypothetical 50 USD bets, not live fills. The curve counts settled bets only and is plotted at kickoff time. A pick for a game whose decision window is still open can change between nightly runs; picks are final once the window has closed. The table shows the most recent bets; totals cover all of them.

■ R1■ R2■ R3■ R4 (control)

R1: -$518.77 · 59 settled · 1 openR2: -$577.35 · 91 settled · 0 openR3: -$322.28 · 49 settled · 1 openR4 (control): +$2861.66 · 942 settled · 7 open

Rule	Game	Side	Kickoff	Stake	Cost	Edge	Status	P&L
R4	CA Bucaramanga v Atlético Nacional	away YES	11-03 01:15Z	$51.42	0.442	—	lost	-$51.42
R4	CA Tucumán v AA Argentinos Juniors	away YES	11-03 00:15Z	$51.60	0.372	—	won	+$87.29
R4	CS Independiente Rivadavia v CA Banfield	home YES	11-03 00:15Z	$50.95	0.632	—	won	+$29.70
R4	Red Bull Bragantino v Santos FC	home YES	11-02 23:00Z	$51.25	0.512	—	won	+$48.75
R4	CA Platense v CA Central Córdoba	home YES	11-02 22:00Z	$50.82	0.681	—	won	+$23.80
R4	CSyD Defensa y Justicia v CA Independiente	home YES	11-02 22:00Z	$51.40	0.452	—	lost	-$51.40
R4	Águilas Doradas Rionegro v Fortaleza FC	home YES	11-02 21:05Z	$51.33	0.481	—	won	+$55.48
R1	Sport Lisboa e Benfica v FC Alverca	home NO	11-02 20:15Z	$52.17	0.136	0.038	lost	-$52.17
R2	Sport Lisboa e Benfica v FC Alverca	home NO	11-02 20:15Z	$52.17	0.136	0.038	lost	-$52.17
R3	Sport Lisboa e Benfica v FC Alverca	home NO	11-02 20:15Z	$52.17	0.136	0.038	lost	-$52.17
R4	Sport Lisboa e Benfica v FC Alverca	home YES	11-02 20:15Z	$50.30	0.885	-0.058	won	+$6.52
R4	Gil Vicente FC v Vitória SC	away YES	11-02 20:15Z	$51.48	0.422	—	lost	-$51.48
R1	Newcastle United FC v Everton FC	home NO	11-02 20:00Z	$51.13	0.562	0.034	won	+$39.78
R2	Newcastle United FC v Everton FC	home NO	11-02 20:00Z	$51.13	0.562	0.034	won	+$39.78
R3	Newcastle United FC v Everton FC	home NO	11-02 20:00Z	$51.13	0.562	0.034	won	+$39.78
R4	Newcastle United FC v Everton FC	home YES	11-02 20:00Z	$51.35	0.472	-0.069	lost	-$51.35
R4	RC Deportivo A Coruña v CA Osasuna	home YES	11-02 20:00Z	$51.35	0.472	—	won	+$57.35
R4	RCD Mallorca v Cádiz CF	home YES	11-02 20:00Z	$50.82	0.681	-0.038	won	+$23.80
R1	Stade de Reims v FC Sochaux-Montbéliard	home NO	11-02 19:45Z	$51.50	0.413	0.255	lost	-$51.50
R1	Red Star FC v AS Nancy-Lorraine	home NO	11-02 19:45Z	$51.00	0.612	0.069	won	+$32.33
R2	Stade de Reims v FC Sochaux-Montbéliard	home NO	11-02 19:45Z	$51.35	0.472	0.197	lost	-$51.35
R2	Atalanta BC v Parma Calcio 1913	home NO	11-02 19:45Z	$51.70	0.331	0.036	won	+$104.55
R2	Red Star FC v AS Nancy-Lorraine	draw YES	11-02 19:45Z	$51.75	0.310	0.052	lost	-$51.75
R3	Red Star FC v AS Nancy-Lorraine	home NO	11-02 19:45Z	$51.00	0.612	0.069	won	+$32.33
R4	FC Lorient v Stade Brestois 29	home YES	11-02 19:45Z	$51.55	0.392	—	lost	-$51.55
R4	Stade de Reims v FC Sochaux-Montbéliard	home YES	11-02 19:45Z	$50.98	0.622	-0.291	won	+$30.99
R4	Atalanta BC v Parma Calcio 1913	home YES	11-02 19:45Z	$50.82	0.681	-0.048	lost	-$50.82
R4	Red Star FC v AS Nancy-Lorraine	home YES	11-02 19:45Z	$51.48	0.422	-0.103	lost	-$51.48
R1	Real Valladolid CF v CD Leganés	away YES	11-02 17:30Z	$51.90	0.249	0.230	lost	-$51.90
R2	Real Valladolid CF v CD Leganés	away YES	11-02 17:30Z	$51.95	0.229	0.251	lost	-$51.95
R2	PAE PS Kalamata v POT Iraklis	home NO	11-02 17:30Z	$51.15	0.552	0.036	won	+$41.44
R4	US Sassuolo Calcio v ACF Fiorentina	away YES	11-02 17:30Z	$51.45	0.432	-0.024	won	+$67.60
R4	Real Valladolid CF v CD Leganés	home YES	11-02 17:30Z	$51.23	0.522	-0.162	won	+$46.81
R4	PAE PS Kalamata v POT Iraklis	home YES	11-02 17:30Z	$51.35	0.472	-0.061	lost	-$51.35
R4	Gençlerbirliği SK v Alanyaspor	away YES	11-02 17:00Z	$51.60	0.372	-0.038	lost	-$51.60
R4	Atromitos Athinon v Volos NPS	home YES	11-02 16:00Z	$51.18	0.542	—	won	+$43.16
R4	Real Oviedo v UD Las Palmas	home YES	11-02 15:15Z	$51.05	0.592	-0.057	lost	-$51.05
R4	Portland Timbers v Houston Dynamo	home YES	11-02 02:45Z	$51.10	0.572	—	won	+$38.19
R4	Los Angeles FC v Minnesota United FC	home YES	11-02 01:30Z	$51.00	0.612	—	lost	-$51.00
R4	CF Cruz Azul v Club León FC	home YES	11-02 01:10Z	$51.10	0.572	—	won	+$38.19
R4	New England Revolution v Inter Miami CF	away YES	11-02 00:00Z	$51.30	0.492	—	won	+$52.87
R4	CA Lanús v CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	home YES	11-01 23:45Z	$50.85	0.671	—	lost	-$50.85
R4	Independiente Medellín v Alianza FC	home YES	11-01 23:10Z	$50.88	0.661	—	won	+$26.05
R4	Club Santos Laguna v Club Necaxa	home YES	11-01 23:00Z	$51.15	0.552	—	won	+$41.44
R4	Nashville SC v New York Red Bulls	home YES	11-01 21:30Z	$50.87	0.665	—	won	+$25.63
R4	Atlanta United FC v Toronto FC	home YES	11-01 21:30Z	$51.39	0.457	—	won	+$61.12
R4	CA Newell's Old Boys v CA Unión	home YES	11-01 21:30Z	$51.38	0.462	—	lost	-$51.38
R4	CA Belgrano v CA Barracas Central	home YES	11-01 21:30Z	$51.21	0.530	—	lost	-$51.21
R4	AD Cali v Boyacá Chicó FC	home YES	11-01 21:05Z	$50.53	0.796	—	won	+$12.99
R4	Vancouver Whitecaps FC v Seattle Sounders FC	home YES	11-01 20:30Z	$51.08	0.582	—	won	+$36.64
R4	SC Braga v FC Famalicão	home YES	11-01 20:30Z	$51.10	0.572	-0.036	won	+$38.19
R2	Athletic Club v Real Sociedad de Fútbol	home NO	11-01 20:00Z	$51.23	0.522	0.040	lost	-$51.23
R4	CD Tenerife v FC Andorra	home YES	11-01 20:00Z	$51.48	0.418	0.020	open	—
R4	Athletic Club v Real Sociedad de Fútbol	home YES	11-01 20:00Z	$51.27	0.502	-0.065	won	+$50.77
R4	Juventus FC v SSC Napoli	home YES	11-01 19:45Z	$51.42	0.442	-0.022	won	+$64.85
R4	Olympique de Marseille v Toulouse FC	home YES	11-01 19:45Z	$51.23	0.522	-0.021	won	+$46.81
R4	Palermo FC v L.R. Vicenza	home YES	11-01 18:30Z	$50.88	0.661	-0.021	won	+$26.05
R4	Royal Charleroi SC v RAAL La Louviere	home YES	11-01 18:15Z	$50.95	0.632	0.014	won	+$29.70
R4	CA Boca Juniors v CA River Plate	home YES	11-01 18:00Z	$51.38	0.462	—	won	+$59.74
R4	CS Marítimo v CD Santa Clara	away YES	11-01 18:00Z	$51.50	0.412	0.000	won	+$73.50

Audits

PASS admissibility
PASS candidates
PASS no_peek
PASS selection_blind